The "Great Recession" in many ways erased a decade of economic progress in the United States. Median home prices in U.S. housing markets--including Metro Denver--fell to levels not seen since the early 2000s, and households lost years' worth of growth in retirement and other assets. The recession also took a massive toll on labor markets. In 2000, the U.S. economy supported 131.8 million jobs. Nine years later in 2009, the jobs count had fallen to 130.9 million.
The Metro Denver Economic Development Corporation's (Metro Denver EDC) Midyear Economic Forecast report includes national, state, and regional projections in key economic indicators such as employment, unemployment, retail sales, home sales/prices/construction, residential foreclosures, and commercial real estate.
While Colorado ranked among the top 20 states for largest job loss between 2008 and 2009, it also ranked among the top 20 for lowest unemployment rate in June 2010. An apparent contradiction to the state's significant job loss, Colorado's low unemployment rate today largely reflects a lower-than-average rate prior to the start of recession. In addition, this reflects the state's strong entrepreneurial spirit, with sole proprietors representing 15.2 percent of Colorado's labor force compared with 13.8 percent of the national labor force.
While Metro Denver employers are off to a slow start in replacing jobs, several recent surveys suggest that hiring could accelerate. In the most recent Manpower Employment Outlook Survey, 19 percent of employers in the Denver-Aurora-Broomfield MSA said they would add jobs in the third quarter. Nearly 30 percent of Colorado respondents to the survey for the University of Colorado Leeds Business Confidence Index said they expected more hiring in the third quarter. In both surveys, the majority of businesses still expect no change in hiring over the next several months. This suggests many employers will remain on the sidelines, but the foundation of labor market recovery is being laid.
Metro Denver employers cut nearly 63,000 jobs during 2009. Even as Metro Denver hiring improves towards the end of this year, the early-year decline in employment will make for a small decline in annual total employment of about 15,000 positions for a 2010 estimated job growth rate of -1.1 percent.
"While the list of risks and challenges currently facing the economy is daunting, a second, 'double-dip' recession is unlikely," explained Patty Silverstein, president of Development Research Partners and chief economist for the Metro Denver EDC. "More probable is a gradual and sometimes bumpy return to growth, albeit slower growth than we have enjoyed over the past several decades."
Despite its labor market challenges, Metro Denver has maintained several key assets that should aid the recovery. The region's housing markets--while still facing headwinds--have less distance to recover than markets further west. Metro Denver continues to attract out-of-state businesses and multinational companies, and the region's commercial real estate market is less overbuilt than markets where speculative development went unchecked. The region is also a key incubator for entrepreneurial and technological talent, both resources that will be needed as the nation's economy works to find a new engine of growth.
Prairie Gateway re-branded to Victory Crossing {Commerce City}
Commerce City "We need to be sure that we are not left behind in ED..."
Will we ever see Development @ the Prairie Gateway site in Commerce City, CO??? It has been years since the Commerce City Civic Center and Rapids stadium have been built and still no economic development. I guess patience is really a virtue.
